Despite the large disease burden imposed by Alzheimer’s disease (AD), little quantitative evidence exists on the aggregate value stemming from innovation slowing the progression of the disease. To fill this gap, this paper uses the existing evidence base to assess the value of medical innovation aimed at slowing the progression of AD. We find that slowing the progression from mild to moderate AD by 0.5 to 3 years has a value of $212 billion to $1,274 billion for the US population over the next 10 years, assuming 50% of mild AD patients can be treated. This total value is attributable to 27 percent of the health gains to AD patients and caregivers, 59 percent of reduced market-based health care spending, and 13 percent of reduced time needed for informal care by care givers. In terms of per-capita costs, we find that a one-year delay from mild AD to moderate AD reduces health care costs by $34,249 and non-market costs by caregivers by $7,882. It also leads to an increase in patient and caregiver quality adjusted life years (QALYs) by 0.16. With 3.3 million mild AD patients in 2022 predicted to grow to 14.6 million in 2032, we find the aggregate value of such a one-year delay ranges from $73.3 billion to $637 billion at $100,000 per QALY. This large value demonstrates the importance of delaying AD progression and ought to further encourage relevant innovation efforts.
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