How hard will the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) hit pharma R&D? Harder than the government expected, according to work (PDF) by the University of Chicago that found lower R&D spending could result in 79 fewer new small-molecule drugs over the next 20 years.
The U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) previously ran the numbers on the IRA, concluding that 15 out of 1,300 drugs would not come to market over the next 30 years. However, multiple analyses have called the CBO figures into question, with healthcare consulting firm Avalere, which received money from Gilead Sciences, finding the IRA could cut pharma revenues by $450 billion and another analysis suggesting between 24 and 49 currently available therapies wouldn’t have reached the market if the pricing provisions took effect in 2014.
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